Jakarta – International research institution Ipsos Public Affairs held a face-to-face survey to capture the developments and electoral dynamics ahead of the presidential and vice presidential candidate elections. The survey was conducted from December 27th to January 5th, spread across 34 provinces in Indonesia. The survey reached a total of 2000 respondents aged 17 and above, or those who are married. The data collection method used multistage random sampling, and the face-to-face interview method used the Ipsos Ifield Computer-Assisted Personal Interviews (CAPI) application. Margin of Error: ±2.19% with a 95% confidence level.
“In the midst of the presidential election, with only weeks left, voter dynamics are shifting and significantly impacting the electoral competition map,” said political observer and senior researcher Arif Nurul Imam from Ipsos Public Affairs in his presentation in Jakarta (10/01/2024).
“This time’s presidential election, according to Arif, shows Jokowi’s effect becoming more apparent as evidenced by the increasing electability of the Prabowo-Gibran pair. In particular, the supporters of Jokowi-Ma’ruf from 2019 are increasingly supporting this second pair.”
Meanwhile, the highest level of support for the presidential candidate pair is found in the Prabowo-Gibran pair, with only 13% still being able to change, while for Anies-Muhaimin, there are 15% of supporters that could still shift. While for the Ganjar-Mahfud pair, there are as many as 20% who could still shift.
“Compared to the survey data at the end of November, Prabowo – Gibran has experienced an increase from 42.66% to 48.05%, while Anies – Muhaimin tends to be stagnant, from 22.13% to 21.80%, and Ganjar-Mahfud from 22.95% to 18.35%, while those who have not yet decided have slightly decreased from 12.26% to 11.80%,” he said.
If we link the increase in public satisfaction with the performance of the Jokowi-Ma’ruf government at present, Arif continued, from 65% in November to 74% in December, then this can be interpreted that any presidential vice-presidential candidate who is considered to continue the government’s work programs of Jokowi-Ma’ruf is highly likely to get a Jokowi effect in terms of electability.
Meanwhile, Deputy Director of Ipsos Public Affairs, Sukma Widyanti, stated that the electability of political parties shows surprising data, where Gerindra occupies the top position, surpassing PDI Perjuangan. “Successive political parties that have the potential to enter parliament are the Gerindra Party, which reaches an electability of up to 27%, followed by PDI Perjuangan at 21%, Golkar 8%, PKB 7%, PKS 7%, Nasdem 6%, PAN 4%, Democrat 3%. The positions of PPP and PSI are still not secure as they have now decreased compared to the previous survey,” said Sukma in her presentation.
“This survey also shows that in the PDI Perjuangan bases, especially in Central Java, which is referred to as the stronghold, Ganjar’s support is increasingly eroding,” she said in her online presentation.
In addition to being a member of the Indonesian Public Opinion Survey Association (Persepi), Ipsos is also a member of the Association for Global Research Agency Worldwide (ESOMAR), an international research association that periodically audits its members.
Ipsos is a highly experienced international research institution in the global world. Headquartered in France, the institution operates in 90 countries, and is known for conducting market research as well as social and political research, including in Indonesia. (SENOPATI)
Sumber: https://prabowosubianto.com/selangkah-lagi-meraih-kursi-istana/
